← MY Hobby Radiant Origins Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at MY Hobby Radiant Origins Store Championship
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-1-2
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1409
· median 1409
· range 1409–1409
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1124
Q1 1207
Q3 1408
1532
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 24.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
